President and Foreign Affairs

SUDAN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM TOMORROW, in which southern Sudanese are expected to vote to separate from the north and form a new nation:

--THE STAKES FOR WASHINGTON - "Sudan vote tests Obama's Africa diplomacy: U.S. sees tough road ahead after Sudan vote -- Obama seeks to avoid 'Rwanda moment,'" by Reuters' Andrew Quinn: "South Sudan's independence referendum Sunday marks the start of a new test for U.S. diplomacy in the region, which analysts say could yet present President Barack Obama with his 'Rwanda moment' if violence explodes in its wake. U.S. officials are cautiously optimistic about the vote, which is expected to see southern Sudan opt to split off as an independent country in the last step of a 2005 peace deal that ended one of Africa's bloodiest civil wars. ... In Sudan, a credible referendum would be welcome news in Washington ... But officials are less confident about the next phase, a tricky six-month transition as the two countries separate ... Crucial issues including borders, citizenship, and division of Sudan's oil revenues are yet to be decided, any of which could trigger bloodshed that some warn might potentially rival the 1994 genocide in Rwanda if it expands into full-blown war."

--WHITE HOUSE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS -- Assistant Press Secretary Tommy Vietor e-mailed reporters yesterday: On Sunday, "Sudan will hold its referendum on self determination. This has the potential to be a historic event, not just for the people of Sudan, but for the region. ... Because the stakes are so high, the President made peace and stability in Sudan a priority from the first days of his administration. And as the referendum drew closer, [he] drastically increased diplomatic activity to ensure it was on time, peaceful, and that the results were respected. ... The President [held a] half dozen meetings at the White House with Special Envoy [to Sudan Scott] Gration to discuss Sudan ... The Vice President ... Raised Sudan during a [September] meeting with Egyptian President Mubarak ... Discussed Sudan during a [December] call with Sudanese Second Vice President Kiir ...

"[Former National Security Adviser James] Jones Held weekly meetings from August-October with his UK, French, German counterparts where Sudan was discussed ... [National Security Adviser Tom] Donilon Regularly discusses Sudan with his counterparts in the UK, France, and Germany ... [Deputy National Security Adviser Denis] McDonough Met [in November] with Sudanese Second Vice President Taha ... Met [in December] with Sudanese First Vice President Kiir ... Met [in December] with Sudanese Second VP Taha ... [S]ince mid-September, ... McDonough has chaired more than two dozen White House-led interagency meetings on Sudan. Some of these meetings lasted as long as 3 hours. ... [T]hese are only the efforts by the President, Vice President and [the National Security Staff]. Not listed are the countless calls and meetings on Sudan by Secretary Clinton, [U.N.] Ambassador Rice, Assistant Secretary [of State for the Bureau of African Affairs] Johnnie Carson, or the 24 trips to the region by Special Envoy Gration."