Friday, February 4, 2011
Important Day for President-Unemployment Numbers Out Today-
Benchmarking Jobs Day Against Election Day": "[F]or 2012, the magic number may ... be 215. That is how many thousands of jobs the economy has to create every month for the unemployment rate to drop below 8 percent by Election Day 2012. ... Since 1960, the unemployment rate has been above 7 percent during four elections: 1976, 1980, 1984 and 1992. In three of these 4 elections, the incumbent party lost. Only in 1984 did Reagan win with 7.2 percent unemployment, which was in the context of a 1.3 percentage point drop in unemployment during the year prior to the election. For President Obama, with a current unemployment rate of 9.4 percent, an unemployment rate below 7 percent is hard to envision by November 2012. However over the coming 2 years, he would see an improved political position from a significant drop in the unemployment rate. Current economic forecasting projects a fourth quarter 2012 unemployment rate of approximately 8 percent (CEA: 7.7 percent; CBO: 8.2 percent; Blue Chip: 8.4 percent). If the unemployment rate can break this 8 percent level, President Obama can credibly argue that he is making progress on jobs, even though the unemployment rate will still be historically high.
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215,000 jobs each month is an enormous number for the Obama administration to create in order to do so but if plans go through like the president spoke about during his state of the union address this could be possible. His ideas for reinventing america and pushing us to improve our country brings about more jobs for the american people. The rail way system for example if it is funded could create many jobs that could potential lower unemployment. During the great depression, the use of public jobs for created the interstate system proved to be an effective way to provide more jobs for the american people. Programs like this helped to bring our country out of the great depression and if we wish to lower the unemployment, more programs will need to be created to do so. The railway system will be a start and production of electric cars will also be a step forward but more will need to be done.
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