Big, big issue, redistricting, for rural areas in Michigan.
The Future of Redistricting and Rural America
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Divided Government: Will Anything Get Done?
The Economist has a very interesting article on this topic. See Below.
Lexington / Bluff and counter-bluff
Will America’s newly divided government be able to do anything at all?
Nov 18th 2010 | from PRINT EDITION THE ECONOMIST
NOT even Abroad helped him this time. Already diminished by the mid-terms, Barack Obama returned to Washington on November 15th without having added to his stature during his ten days in Asia. Though welcomed in Indonesia as if he were a native son, and garlanded in Delhi for backing India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, he failed to achieve his main goals. In Seoul a free-trade agreement with South Korea eluded him, China brushed aside his grumbles about its undervalued currency and America’s European allies dismissed his advice to stimulate growth by maintaining public spending. Julia Gillard, Australia’s prime minister, pronounced Australia and America “great mates”, but by the standards of a world-transforming president with a Nobel prize the trip was a flop.
And yet Asia was bliss compared with the purgatory back home. It is bad enough that Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, keeps saying the Republicans’ aim now is to ensure that Mr Obama will not serve a second term without Democrats joining the chorus. But in the Washington Post Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton respectively, implored Mr Obama to say that he will not seek re-election. Only thus, they say, can he redeem his campaign promises to transcend party and govern solely in the national interest. Given the country’s divisions, they argue, “governing and campaigning have become incompatible.”
Mr Obama did indeed once say in a television interview that he would prefer to be a good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president. Having lost six seats in the Senate and more than 60 in the House, the Democrats are in shock. But mid-term elections are often followed by exaggerated despair on one side and unwarranted hubris on the other, and the likelihood of Mr Obama accepting this friendly advice is close to zero.
As to hubris, the Republican freshmen bound for Congress next January are in danger of reading into the election a message of their own creation. Many see the mid-terms as a popular rejection of the president’s “extreme” policies. This is doubtful. Voters were more likely registering a protest at the economy than repudiating an ideology. Besides, to the disgust of his own progressive base, Mr Obama enacted no extreme policies. Obamacare is a good deal less radical than the plan Richard Nixon proposed in 1974 or Bill Clinton 20 years later. In fact it closely resembles the bill the Republicans put up as an alternative to Mr Clinton’s, and its central idea—the individual mandate—was introduced in Massachusetts by none other than Mitt Romney, who hopes to become the Republicans’ presidential nominee in 2012.
Wiser Republican heads know already that however impressive the triumph at the polls, the right must not let its zealots prevent the party from showing that at the same time as mounting an effective opposition it can co-operate with Mr Obama when this is in the national interest. For his part, Mr Obama needs to demonstrate that he has heeded the voters’ message but is capable of governing despite the loss of the House. Somewhere in the grey area where these respective needs overlap the two parties will have to compromise if America is to avoid gridlock of the sort that shut down the federal government after Newt Gingrich led the Republicans to victory in 1994.
They have little time to ponder before a freight train of business thunders into Capitol Hill. High on the agenda as the lame-duck Congress convened this week were the Bush-era tax cuts due to expire on December 31st. Letting taxes rise abruptly would hurt not only the recovery but also whichever party the electorate ended up blaming. Congress also faces the small matter of passing a budget so that the government can continue to function in the new year. The early omens were not good. Mr Obama dearly wants the Senate to ratify his new START treaty with Russia, but as he prepared to jet out again for high diplomacy in Europe, the Republicans indicated that he would not get that in the lame-duck session, if at all. And they decided they were too busy for a bipartisan meeting with the White House this week.
High minds and low politics
There are grounds for doubting whether any compromise is possible given the ever-widening ideological distance between the parties. Even before the mid-terms, pundits wondered whether Mr Obama had it in him to follow the example of Mr Clinton when he faced the same predicament after 1994. Many have concluded that he does not. Mr Clinton’s admirers recall how the former president’s political smarts enabled him to beguile and outwit Mr Gingrich by stealing the Republicans’ best ideas: a balanced budget, welfare reform, smaller government, deregulation. His detractors claim that only a lack of firm convictions made it possible for him to turn on a dime. Either way, it is agreed, Mr Obama lacks the suppleness for Clintonian triangulation (“a fancy word for betrayal”, as one Clinton aide put it).
This conclusion is premature. Those who consider Mr Obama too high-minded to save himself cannot have been paying attention. Whether it was dropping the public option in Obamacare, kicking immigration reform into the long grass or going slow on gays in the military, Mr Obama has shown himself perfectly capable of bending with the wind: just ask those disgusted progressives. A better question is whether today’s Republicans have any ideas worth stealing. Of course, one good thing they say they believe in is reducing the deficit by reforming entitlements. As we report in this article, Mr Obama’s bipartisan deficit commission has now sketched out some of the painful choices that doing so would entail. Is it conceivable that in the delicate game of bluff and counter-bluff about to begin in Washington each side will at last goad the other into real movement on this? Here’s hoping.
Lexington / Bluff and counter-bluff
Will America’s newly divided government be able to do anything at all?
Nov 18th 2010 | from PRINT EDITION THE ECONOMIST
NOT even Abroad helped him this time. Already diminished by the mid-terms, Barack Obama returned to Washington on November 15th without having added to his stature during his ten days in Asia. Though welcomed in Indonesia as if he were a native son, and garlanded in Delhi for backing India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, he failed to achieve his main goals. In Seoul a free-trade agreement with South Korea eluded him, China brushed aside his grumbles about its undervalued currency and America’s European allies dismissed his advice to stimulate growth by maintaining public spending. Julia Gillard, Australia’s prime minister, pronounced Australia and America “great mates”, but by the standards of a world-transforming president with a Nobel prize the trip was a flop.
And yet Asia was bliss compared with the purgatory back home. It is bad enough that Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, keeps saying the Republicans’ aim now is to ensure that Mr Obama will not serve a second term without Democrats joining the chorus. But in the Washington Post Patrick Caddell and Douglas Schoen, who worked for Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton respectively, implored Mr Obama to say that he will not seek re-election. Only thus, they say, can he redeem his campaign promises to transcend party and govern solely in the national interest. Given the country’s divisions, they argue, “governing and campaigning have become incompatible.”
Mr Obama did indeed once say in a television interview that he would prefer to be a good one-term president than a mediocre two-term president. Having lost six seats in the Senate and more than 60 in the House, the Democrats are in shock. But mid-term elections are often followed by exaggerated despair on one side and unwarranted hubris on the other, and the likelihood of Mr Obama accepting this friendly advice is close to zero.
As to hubris, the Republican freshmen bound for Congress next January are in danger of reading into the election a message of their own creation. Many see the mid-terms as a popular rejection of the president’s “extreme” policies. This is doubtful. Voters were more likely registering a protest at the economy than repudiating an ideology. Besides, to the disgust of his own progressive base, Mr Obama enacted no extreme policies. Obamacare is a good deal less radical than the plan Richard Nixon proposed in 1974 or Bill Clinton 20 years later. In fact it closely resembles the bill the Republicans put up as an alternative to Mr Clinton’s, and its central idea—the individual mandate—was introduced in Massachusetts by none other than Mitt Romney, who hopes to become the Republicans’ presidential nominee in 2012.
Wiser Republican heads know already that however impressive the triumph at the polls, the right must not let its zealots prevent the party from showing that at the same time as mounting an effective opposition it can co-operate with Mr Obama when this is in the national interest. For his part, Mr Obama needs to demonstrate that he has heeded the voters’ message but is capable of governing despite the loss of the House. Somewhere in the grey area where these respective needs overlap the two parties will have to compromise if America is to avoid gridlock of the sort that shut down the federal government after Newt Gingrich led the Republicans to victory in 1994.
They have little time to ponder before a freight train of business thunders into Capitol Hill. High on the agenda as the lame-duck Congress convened this week were the Bush-era tax cuts due to expire on December 31st. Letting taxes rise abruptly would hurt not only the recovery but also whichever party the electorate ended up blaming. Congress also faces the small matter of passing a budget so that the government can continue to function in the new year. The early omens were not good. Mr Obama dearly wants the Senate to ratify his new START treaty with Russia, but as he prepared to jet out again for high diplomacy in Europe, the Republicans indicated that he would not get that in the lame-duck session, if at all. And they decided they were too busy for a bipartisan meeting with the White House this week.
High minds and low politics
There are grounds for doubting whether any compromise is possible given the ever-widening ideological distance between the parties. Even before the mid-terms, pundits wondered whether Mr Obama had it in him to follow the example of Mr Clinton when he faced the same predicament after 1994. Many have concluded that he does not. Mr Clinton’s admirers recall how the former president’s political smarts enabled him to beguile and outwit Mr Gingrich by stealing the Republicans’ best ideas: a balanced budget, welfare reform, smaller government, deregulation. His detractors claim that only a lack of firm convictions made it possible for him to turn on a dime. Either way, it is agreed, Mr Obama lacks the suppleness for Clintonian triangulation (“a fancy word for betrayal”, as one Clinton aide put it).
This conclusion is premature. Those who consider Mr Obama too high-minded to save himself cannot have been paying attention. Whether it was dropping the public option in Obamacare, kicking immigration reform into the long grass or going slow on gays in the military, Mr Obama has shown himself perfectly capable of bending with the wind: just ask those disgusted progressives. A better question is whether today’s Republicans have any ideas worth stealing. Of course, one good thing they say they believe in is reducing the deficit by reforming entitlements. As we report in this article, Mr Obama’s bipartisan deficit commission has now sketched out some of the painful choices that doing so would entail. Is it conceivable that in the delicate game of bluff and counter-bluff about to begin in Washington each side will at last goad the other into real movement on this? Here’s hoping.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Pa. House passes bill to rescue state pension systems | Philadelphia Inquirer | 11/16/2010
Michigan is about to be forced to deal with the same issue of public pension reform at all levels of government including K-12 and higher education.
Pa. House passes bill to rescue state pension systems | Philadelphia Inquirer | 11/16/2010
Pa. House passes bill to rescue state pension systems | Philadelphia Inquirer | 11/16/2010
Boycotts over immigration law cost Arizona millions - USATODAY.com
Will be interesting to watch the new Congress deal with the immigration issue next year--not to mention the passage of the Senate introduced "Dream Act".
Boycotts over immigration law cost Arizona millions - USATODAY.com
Boycotts over immigration law cost Arizona millions - USATODAY.com
Friday, November 19, 2010
The Housing Market's Effect on Government Finance
Good article on government financing and revenue issues.
The Housing Market's Effect on Government Finance
The Housing Market's Effect on Government Finance
Bill promoting federal teleworking goes to Obama - USATODAY.com
This might spread to state and local governments. Also is a way to cut back on capital expense, building expenses for offices, etc.. Already underway and practiced heavily in the private sector.
Bill promoting federal teleworking goes to Obama - USATODAY.com
Bill promoting federal teleworking goes to Obama - USATODAY.com
Mt. Clemens begs for cash | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
This is the next "trend" statewide--asking Universities, colleges and non profits for cash in lieu of tax payments. It may be the only way to keep some local governments afloat. However it would mean more costs at universities and may add to the tuition increases at the Universities. Might also lead to a constitutionality case being files.
Mt. Clemens begs for cash | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Mt. Clemens begs for cash | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Mississippi governor spreads the pain in proposed budget cuts | clarionledger.com | The Clarion-Ledger
Will we see some of this higher education reforms in Michigan? Will there be university mergers or more coordination of programs and majors?
Mississippi governor spreads the pain in proposed budget cuts | clarionledger.com | The Clarion-Ledger: "He suggested performance-based funding for higher education and the consolidation of administrative services at all levels.
Barbour's budget would spend $20 million to consolidate back-room operations, including payroll, personnel and human resources, for the state's four smaller universities, with an eye toward total consolidation for all eight down the road.
But many of the big-ticket proposals Barbour outlined Monday in a news conference were a repeat of his efforts from last year.
The governor continued his call to cut the number of school districts by a third, close mental health hospitals and consolidate the three state historically black universities."
Mississippi governor spreads the pain in proposed budget cuts | clarionledger.com | The Clarion-Ledger: "He suggested performance-based funding for higher education and the consolidation of administrative services at all levels.
Barbour's budget would spend $20 million to consolidate back-room operations, including payroll, personnel and human resources, for the state's four smaller universities, with an eye toward total consolidation for all eight down the road.
But many of the big-ticket proposals Barbour outlined Monday in a news conference were a repeat of his efforts from last year.
The governor continued his call to cut the number of school districts by a third, close mental health hospitals and consolidate the three state historically black universities."
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Report shows how Grand Rapids' high pension costs are causing budget woes | MLive.com
The public pension costs will be first on the list for Snyder administration as it looks at state costs and reduction of expenses.
Report shows how Grand Rapids' high pension costs are causing budget woes | MLive.com
Report shows how Grand Rapids' high pension costs are causing budget woes | MLive.com
Snyder transition, challenges get attention in and out of state - Crain's Detroit Business - Detroit News and Information
The Snyder team will have its hands full once it takes over the government in January. It will need all the expertise and experience it can muster to help redesign, reform and reinvent Michigan.
Snyder transition, challenges get attention in and out of state - Crain's Detroit Business - Detroit News and Information
Snyder transition, challenges get attention in and out of state - Crain's Detroit Business - Detroit News and Information
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Gary Peters: Taming the deficit will require multiple approaches WITH VIDEO - theoaklandpress.com
We need as many ideas on dealing with the federal and state deficit as we can get into the mix. Here is one more.
Gary Peters: Taming the deficit will require multiple approaches WITH VIDEO - theoaklandpress.com
Gary Peters: Taming the deficit will require multiple approaches WITH VIDEO - theoaklandpress.com
Bobb asks state to free $400 million to help schools | detnews.com | The Detroit News
And the winner is??? children? other school districts? urban and rural?
Bobb asks state to free $400 million to help schools | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Bobb asks state to free $400 million to help schools | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Monday, November 15, 2010
Lansing-State Capital
Lansing is a city of young idealists and old cynics... To paraphrase Dick Armey about Washington.
Will the young idealists win in Lansing this year as they try to reform state government and cut the state budget. Or will then old cynics block all innovation and reform?.
Is the new Governor a young idealist? Okay maybe a middle aged idealist who is also a practitioner of the artbof what is possible? The art of politics.
Will the young idealists win in Lansing this year as they try to reform state government and cut the state budget. Or will then old cynics block all innovation and reform?.
Is the new Governor a young idealist? Okay maybe a middle aged idealist who is also a practitioner of the artbof what is possible? The art of politics.
Lobbying lawmakers a growth industry in Michigan | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
How will the lobbying community react to the new Governor's budget cut proposals and government reform initiatives? Will they helpers, enablers or blockers? Do they really speak for those without a voice or just for those who hire them? Remember non profits, universities, environmental groups, labor unions, senior citizens, big business, small business, police officers, firemen, teachers, and almost every segment of society in Michigan has a lobbyist that has been hired to represent them.
Lobbying lawmakers a growth industry in Michigan | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Lobbying lawmakers a growth industry in Michigan | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Three Most Important Snyder Appointments
Three most important and powerful positions Governor Elect Snyder has to make are: Chief of Staff; Budget Director and his Director of Strategy/Policy. The rest are important but pale In comparison to these three slots. Fourth and fifth most important are the State Treasurer and his chief Legislative Director.
Good appointment- Bill Rustem
Governor Snyder's new Director of Strategy/Policy is brilliant and a very experienced guy. Bill Rustem is a very good appointment. He will bring a balance of Lansing experience, over 40 years, and new innovative and tough thinking. This is one of the guys to watch next year.
Public Pension Payments as a budget balancer
Libertarian Mackinaw Center has a new study that says if Michigan brought ALL state employee pensions to the average of private sector pensions that the state would save $5 Billion.
They say even if their study is 50% off on what the average is the state would still save $2.5 Billion and the state would not have to make one cut in next years budget. They say the state should still make cuts but they could be more strategic in the cuts if they reduce public pension payments.
They say even if their study is 50% off on what the average is the state would still save $2.5 Billion and the state would not have to make one cut in next years budget. They say the state should still make cuts but they could be more strategic in the cuts if they reduce public pension payments.
Upcoming Cuts
Expect cuts in ALL Michigan state Programs, including higher education and K-12. Impossible to solve the existing $1.6 BILLION deficit for next fiscal year without either huge cuts in the state budget or a tax increase? There are NO votes for a tax increase in the new legislature. Only places to cut that will make a dollar difference are higher ed, corrections, community health and K-12. Other areas and cuts would be chump change.
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Taxation
The Governor elect is proposing a re write of the corporate tax in Michigan--The Michigan Business Tax. He is proposing to go to a corporate income tax with a rate of 6%. Some are saying that will cut state revenue by over $1 billion when the state will have a $1.6 billion deficit next fiscal year. Good idea? Other ideas? Does not seem to any support for a tax increase, so there will need to be budget cuts and program reductions.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Gridlock
Will it disappear? Should it?
Senator Mc Connel's pledge to defeat President O might justbguarantee gridlock. Will President want to work with a Senate Leader whom wants to drive him from office? Is this what Americans want? Is this what they said with there votes on Tuesday? Maybe? Maybe not?
Senator Mc Connel's pledge to defeat President O might justbguarantee gridlock. Will President want to work with a Senate Leader whom wants to drive him from office? Is this what Americans want? Is this what they said with there votes on Tuesday? Maybe? Maybe not?
Discretion
Discretion is being able to raise your eyebrow and not your voice.
Might be a good idea and practice for the new and old Congress, State Legislature and Governor.
Get more done?
Might be a good idea and practice for the new and old Congress, State Legislature and Governor.
Get more done?
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Nation's Hottest Races
NATION'S HOTTEST HOUSE RACES:
AL-02: Incumbent Rep. Bobby Bright (D) v. Martha Roby (R) -- Rothenberg - Tilt Republican, Cook - Tossup. Real Clear Politics - Tossup. FiveThirtyEight - Roby 51.8%, Bright, 48.2%.
AZ-05: Incumbent Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) v. David Schweikert (R) -- Rothenberg - Tossup/ Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Lean GOP, Fivethirtyeight - Schweikert 50.7%, Mitchell 46.8%.
FL-22: Incumbent Rep. Ron Klein (D) v. Allen West (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure tossup, Cook Political report - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - West 51.7%, Klein 48.4%.
FL-25: David Rivera (R) v. Joe Garcia (D) -- Rothenberg - Lean GOP, Cook - Lean GOP, Real Clear Politics - Likely GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Rivera 51.7%, Garcia 45.6%.
IN-09: Incumbent Rep. Baron Hill (D) v. Todd Young (R). Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Young 50.3%, Hill 47.7%.
IL-17: Incumbent Rep. Phil Hare (D) v. Bobby Schilling (R). Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Schilling 49.4%, Hare 47.7%.
MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) v. Bill Keating (D) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Tossup, FiveThirtyEight - Keating 48.9%, Perry 48.1%.
MI-07: Incumbent Rep. Mark Schauer (D) v. former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Walberg 49.4%, Schauer 48.1%.
NM-01: Incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) v. Jon Barela (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Tossup, FiveThirtyEight - Heinrich 51.2%, Barela 48.8%.
NV-03: Incumbent Rep. Dina Titus (D) v. Joe Heck (R) -- Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, RealClearPolitics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Heck 52.3%, Titus 46.0%.
NY-19: Incumbent Rep. John Hall v. Nan Hayworth -- Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Hayworth 51.4%, Hall 48.6%.
OR-05: Incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) v. Scott Bruun (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, RealClearPolitics - Tossup, FiveThirtyEight - Bruun 49.5%, Schrader 48.3%.
PA-08: Incumbent Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) v. former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) -- Rothenburg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Fitzpatrick 51.8%, Murphy 48.2%.
SD-At Large: Incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) v. Kristi Noem (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook: Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Noem 50.3%, Herseth Sandlin 47.3%.
WI-07: Julie Lassa (D) v. Sean Duffy (R) -- Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Duffy 51.6%, Lassa 45.8%.
AL-02: Incumbent Rep. Bobby Bright (D) v. Martha Roby (R) -- Rothenberg - Tilt Republican, Cook - Tossup. Real Clear Politics - Tossup. FiveThirtyEight - Roby 51.8%, Bright, 48.2%.
AZ-05: Incumbent Rep. Harry Mitchell (D) v. David Schweikert (R) -- Rothenberg - Tossup/ Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Lean GOP, Fivethirtyeight - Schweikert 50.7%, Mitchell 46.8%.
FL-22: Incumbent Rep. Ron Klein (D) v. Allen West (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure tossup, Cook Political report - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - West 51.7%, Klein 48.4%.
FL-25: David Rivera (R) v. Joe Garcia (D) -- Rothenberg - Lean GOP, Cook - Lean GOP, Real Clear Politics - Likely GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Rivera 51.7%, Garcia 45.6%.
IN-09: Incumbent Rep. Baron Hill (D) v. Todd Young (R). Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Young 50.3%, Hill 47.7%.
IL-17: Incumbent Rep. Phil Hare (D) v. Bobby Schilling (R). Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Schilling 49.4%, Hare 47.7%.
MA-10: Jeff Perry (R) v. Bill Keating (D) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Tossup, FiveThirtyEight - Keating 48.9%, Perry 48.1%.
MI-07: Incumbent Rep. Mark Schauer (D) v. former Rep. Tim Walberg (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Walberg 49.4%, Schauer 48.1%.
NM-01: Incumbent Rep. Martin Heinrich (D) v. Jon Barela (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Tossup, FiveThirtyEight - Heinrich 51.2%, Barela 48.8%.
NV-03: Incumbent Rep. Dina Titus (D) v. Joe Heck (R) -- Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, RealClearPolitics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Heck 52.3%, Titus 46.0%.
NY-19: Incumbent Rep. John Hall v. Nan Hayworth -- Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Hayworth 51.4%, Hall 48.6%.
OR-05: Incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) v. Scott Bruun (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook - Tossup, RealClearPolitics - Tossup, FiveThirtyEight - Bruun 49.5%, Schrader 48.3%.
PA-08: Incumbent Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) v. former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) -- Rothenburg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Fitzpatrick 51.8%, Murphy 48.2%.
SD-At Large: Incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) v. Kristi Noem (R) -- Rothenberg - Pure Tossup, Cook: Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Noem 50.3%, Herseth Sandlin 47.3%.
WI-07: Julie Lassa (D) v. Sean Duffy (R) -- Rothenberg - Tossup/Tilt GOP, Cook - Tossup, Real Clear Politics - Leans GOP, FiveThirtyEight - Duffy 51.6%, Lassa 45.8%.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Voters under 30 and turnout in general
Only 8 % of voters under 30 are expected to vote in this election.
Midterm elections usually have only a 44% turnout of all voters. Think it will stay consistent this time?
A high turnout in Michigan would be 3.8 million voters- about 55%.
Midterm elections usually have only a 44% turnout of all voters. Think it will stay consistent this time?
A high turnout in Michigan would be 3.8 million voters- about 55%.
Gridlock versus Solutions
What the voters are NOT saying in this election is that Gridlock in Gov't . They ARE saying they want solutions to our fiscal problems and they want the Gov't to find real solutions, not give up their principles but rather to be innovative and find solutions. This is not a mandate to do nothing and/ or to shut down Gov't while middle-class people suffer while the elite prosper or avoid any pain or sacrifice.
Federal election
US CONGRESS:
Senate will go to a GOP majority if they get 10 seats now held by the Dems. Pundits say they get 8. Will the so called wave of Republican voters carry the GOP to the majority and give them 10 more seats?
US House will flip to GOP control if they get a minimum of 39 new seats. Guess they may get 60 to 64, but they only need 39.
In Senate watch the vote in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Illinois. also California and Ohio.
In the House races watch those seats that went Dem in Obama election in 08. If those start to flip then the Dem losses in House go toward the 60 plus losses and a GOP majority in House.
In 1st CD McDowell wins if his voter turnout machine is very, very successful. If not he losses. McDowell must counter the GOP so called wave with a huge Dem turnout in the UP. He losses if he does not get both.
Senate will go to a GOP majority if they get 10 seats now held by the Dems. Pundits say they get 8. Will the so called wave of Republican voters carry the GOP to the majority and give them 10 more seats?
US House will flip to GOP control if they get a minimum of 39 new seats. Guess they may get 60 to 64, but they only need 39.
In Senate watch the vote in Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Illinois. also California and Ohio.
In the House races watch those seats that went Dem in Obama election in 08. If those start to flip then the Dem losses in House go toward the 60 plus losses and a GOP majority in House.
In 1st CD McDowell wins if his voter turnout machine is very, very successful. If not he losses. McDowell must counter the GOP so called wave with a huge Dem turnout in the UP. He losses if he does not get both.
Election Day
Watch to see how the races for governor are going to judge how the Dems and Repubs are doing across the nation. These races will be a better barometer of election results on election nite-they will tel you how each party is doing. These are better to watch than the US Senate races.
ALL CAPS? Not OK on road signs, federal government says - USATODAY.com
good grief. Talk about feds imposing costs on local units of government. Maybe the feds should pay for what they force upon local units of government--or at least be mandated to justify these kind crazy mandated programs.
ALL CAPS? Not OK on road signs, federal government says - USATODAY.com
ALL CAPS? Not OK on road signs, federal government says - USATODAY.com
Arizona's Immigration Law Goes Before Appeals Court
Eventually the US Supreme Court will have to take up these Immigration cases. Will be a chance for the Court to rule on the 10th Amendment and immigration. Could have a big impact on state rights issues and state authority to govern. Also might dictate how the feds have to spend money in border states to enforce border control.
Arizona's Immigration Law Goes Before Appeals Court
Arizona's Immigration Law Goes Before Appeals Court
Republicans hope for rise at the local level, too | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Local elections are a good predictor of what will happen in Michigan in 2012 elections. Also this local "wave" will have a huge impact on reapportionment--which will dictate which political party controls the legislature and Congress for the next decade. Important to watch these local elections across Michigan. Of course more voters in Michigan live in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties than in any other region of the state. So there elections are very good predictors of what will happen statewide. Also look at Kent, Allegan, Kalamazoo, Ottawa and Muskegon counties for indicators.
Republicans hope for rise at the local level, too | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Republicans hope for rise at the local level, too | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
4 school districts ask for more money | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
You do not see many districts asking voters to approve mileage this year. Interesting vote and will tell us something about the mood of local voters on taxes and K-12 education.
4 school districts ask for more money | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
4 school districts ask for more money | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Voters on board for Pure Michigan ads, film credits | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Interesting that voters want big cuts in government spending but these two uses of public funds seem to escape the hit of voter cuts. Hmmmmmmm.
Voters on board for Pure Michigan ads, film credits | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Voters on board for Pure Michigan ads, film credits | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Control of Michigan House up for grabs | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Final days of the election. Will the Republican so called wave be enough to carry over to state legislative elections? This article refers to that matter.
Control of Michigan House up for grabs | detnews.com | The Detroit News
Control of Michigan House up for grabs | detnews.com | The Detroit News
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